How Scenario Planning can transform your Strategic Planning.
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when Herman Kahn used it in his work for the U.S. military at the RAND corporation. It did not immediately catch on among small or midsize businesses, which believed it to be too time consuming and impractical. However, some larger companies, notably Apple, have recently had success with the method, leading to a surge in its popularity.
Scenario planning can help solve many issues, from big-picture ones to problems that occur in specific situations. Here is an example of how it can be used in today's business environment: The so-called "great resignation" is affecting every level of business, from the top down. When people leave, they take institutional knowledge with them. In times like these, when people leave before they train a replacement, the loss can be especially impactful. So, instead of simply hiring someone else for an open position, what if the company took the time to evaluate whether its needs have changed or are expected to change soon — and then hired in anticipation of meeting those needs?
Scenario planning is a tool that seeks to provide reassurance in times of uncertainty by assessing a set of "what if" situations that describe how the future might unfold. The exercise is designed to challenge conventional assumptions.
The most common method of scenario planning is the four-scenario exercise. To begin, identify external opportunities (e.g., a manufacturer gets a contract with a big-box store) and challenges (e.g., there is a major supply chain disruption). Then classify each possible outcome as both high or low probability and high or low impact.
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business's strategic plan
Travis Raml, CPA